Iran

Iran: the next target

By: DR. MINJAH QIDWAI
Published: July 18, 2004

Iran has been in limelight these days for its alleged role in nuclear proliferation, the presence of training camps of Al-Qaeda, and the alleged safe passage provided to the hijackers of September 11. However, there is one more brewing aspect. American President George Bush has promised that if re-elected in November he will make regime change in Iran his new target.

Bush named Iran as part of the Axis of Evil along with North Korea and Iraq almost three years ago. This regime change will not follow the example of Iraq. A military action would not be overt in changing regime in Iran. If President Bush is re-elected there will be much more intervention in the internal affairs of Iran. The US would work to stir revolts in the country and hope to topple the current conservative religious leadership.

Although the Iranian government has complied with the International Atomic Agency’s regulations, but still being blamed for uranium enrichment. The air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities are also looming from Israel. Iran has thwarted this threat by announcing retaliatory measures of such an action. In the case of training camps in Iranian soil, the Iranian government announced this weekend that it had successfully eradicated all al-Qaeda cells operating in the country, but this statement comes as leaked reports from the US September 11 Commission that show definite links between Iran and the September 11 terrorists. Iran has been alleged to provide safe passage to the September 11 hijackers. Time magazine reports that at least eight of the hijackers, who lived in the US for months before the attacks, passed through Iran between October 2000 and February 2001 apparently with help from the Iranian authorities.

Known al-Qaeda members also seem to have been allowed to cross in and out of Iran freely across the Afghan border, with Iranian border guards being told not to stamp the passports of al-Qaeda operatives, harass them or hinder their ability to travel freely.

The Iranian government says it has arrested and repatriated hundreds of al-Qaeda suspects in the past two years in a display of willingness to bring terrorism in the Middle East under control. A suspected Saudi al-Qaeda militant, Khaled al-Harbi, who appeared in a videotape with Osama bin Laden, gave himself up in Iran last week, and was flown back to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.

Whatever Iran does to clarify its role either in the nuclear proliferation or the training camps of Al-Qaeda or providing safe passage to the hijackers, when Americans decide to divert their guns towards a target they will ignore any clarifications. In case of Iraq, they had to occupy the land, so the administration and media started its bashing of the Saddam regime. They prepared a false case against the Iraqi regime; and then did not feel shame in accepting the mistakes they committed. Their objective was achieved and the regime changed took place.

The same appears to be true for Iran. The war-mongering administration and media is now diverting its attention towards Iran, and would be willing to make false pretext for waging media frenzy against the Iranian regime. The situation is further deteriorated by the fact that Iranian regime is also loosing friends of past. Their relations with Canada have soared recently on the Zahra Kazemi case, with England they were forced to release the British troops they caught from their waters, and the European Union is also not happy with them on the nuclear proliferation issue.

Their lone friend in the region Syria is also under attack from Bush administration. Therefore, Iranians will have to devise a strategy themselves to avoid being the Iraq of post re-election Bush administration. The possible solutions would be to play an active role in Islamic Community, mend its relations with the European Union, and keep close contact with Russia and China. Although these contacts did not help Iraq, but Iran and Iraq are different. This is also known by the Bush administration. They would plan with perfection for a regime change from inside. Former Shah of Iran’s son, Reza Shah could be a candidate, who can replace the current regime. Iran must open up its doors towards reforms, and allow Khatemi government to function with an open hand. The liberty to the Iranians is the only viable option available with Iran for its survival.

Dr. Minhaj A. Qidwai is the contributing editor of New York based newspaper "South Asian Insider", and writes free lance on topics related to World Politics and Challanges facing Muslim Ummah for the news media. He is currently based in Canada, and can be reached at "qidwaiminhaj@yahoo.com